- November 23, 2024
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There are many ways to look at real estate statistics. A journalist has a certain measure of flexibility, both in the choice of statistics to report and in methods used in their analysis. Take this article's heading. I could have said simply, "January home sales down." Actually, 109 single-family Flagler County homes were reported sold (closed) through the Flagler Multiple Listing Service in January, down 11.4% from January 2012. That marks the first month since April 2011 where year-over-year sales dipped. I could leave it at that and many Realtors and homeowners would have a sleepless night or two. But I would be shading the truth. Other metrics are more positive.
I look at real estate statistics from several angles, trying to discern patterns or anomalies. While the number of homes sold was down, the total value of this January's home sales rose 7.3%. That's because home prices rose significantly from a year ago. The median selling price (half sold above, half below) in January 2012 was $106,000, joining September 2011 in a tie for the lowest median price since the housing bubble burst. January 2013's median was $142,000, highest since November 2009.
We would all like to attribute this uptick to a rise in property values, but other factors contribute too. Product mix is clearly in play. Sales of distressed properties (foreclosed or short sales) skew the median. January displayed a dramatic shift in the product mix. Distressed properties comprised only 42.2% of all home sales last month compared to 57.7% one year ago. Both short sale and lender-owned sale percentages were lower.
The market also reacts to buyers' and sellers' perception of supply and demand. Over the last year, inventory is down 14%. Last year's abundant supply of distressed inventory has thinned out and buyers have begun to take note. This fact is measurable. One year ago, homes sold at a 5.3% average discount from the listing price. This January's discount was only 3.1%.
Cash buyers are increasingly active and competitive. January 2013 cash sales accounted for 57.8% of home sales (up 12.9%). More important is the competition among cash buyers. Last January's cash home buyer paid an average of 5.3% below the listing price. This January's cash buyer was able to negotiate only a 0.3% discount from the listing price.
So, why were 14 fewer Flagler County homes sold this January than last January? Honestly, I don't know, but the fact that there were 17 more building permits issued for construction of single-family homes in Flagler County and Palm Coast might be more than a coincidence. Apparently more buyers are opting for new construction. I report. You decide.
