- October 9, 2024
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Likely Republican primary voters in Florida strongly prefer Donald Trump, with 60% indicating a vote for Trump, followed by Ron DeSantis at 21%, according to a poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab.
“Despite historically high approval in the polls, Governor DeSantis losing steam in his home state doesn’t bode well for his national campaign,” said Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and professor of political science. “Even if you wipe out the rest of the competition in a head-to-head, Trump leads DeSantis by 20 points.”
Nikki Haley was third, with 6%; followed by Chris Christie, with 2%; and Vivek Ramaswamy with 1%, according to a news release from UNF.
The rest of the candidates received less than 1%, while 8% refused to answer or said they did not know.
The poll sample included 788 registered Florida Republican voters who are considered likely to vote in 2024 (they voted in Republican primaries in 2022, 2020 and 2016 and, in a question about whether they expect to vote in 2024, did not state that they probably or definitely would not).
The poll also, separately, asked respondents to choose in a head-to-head race between Trump and DeSantis. Fifty-nine percent said they would vote for Trump, 29% said they would vote for DeSantis, and 12% refused or said they did not know.
Respondents were also asked their opinions about Trump’s actions after the 2020 election, according to the news release.
Seventy-one percent said the statement, “he was just exercising his right to contest the election,” was the closest to their view, while 16% the statement, “he went so far that he threatened American democracy” was closest to their view, and 14% said they don’t know or refused to answer.
“Given the support for Trump in the upcoming election, it’s not surprising that most of these voters think he was within his rights to contest the election,” Binder said. “Interestingly, the 16% who think he threatened democracy tend to favor DeSantis narrowly over Nikki Haley.”
Asked about the 2026 Florida Gubernatorial election, 40% of respondents said they do not know who they would vote for or refused to answer, 22% indicated a vote for Casey DeSantis, and 9% each indicated a vote for Byron Donalds and Matt Gaetz.
A total of 37% said an endorsement from DeSantis would influence their vote choice for Florida governor a great deal, 31% said an endorsement would influence their choice some, 10% said very little, and 18% said not at all.
“We’re obviously still a ways out from the Governor’s race, and this pool of candidates will certainly change before 2026,” Binder said. “For now, it seems Florida’s First Lady Casey DeSantis is an early favorite among Republican primary voters – wouldn’t that be interesting, potentially having the DeSantises in the governor’s mansion for another 11 years.”
Responding to questions on their opinions about the U.S. House of Representatives and the recent removal of House speaker Kevin McCarthy, only 8% of respondents said they have a great deal of trust in the House, 31% said they have some trust, 38% said they have very little trust and 20% said they have no trust at all.
Asked how the speaker’s removal affects their trust in the House, 49% said there was no change, 27% said it decreased trust, and 16% said it increased trust, according to the news release.
“Most of these respondents have little to no trust in the U.S. House of Representatives,” Binder said. “While a little less than half said McCarthy’s ousting didn’t affect their opinions of the House or the Party, the situation in Congress seems to have made a bad impression on about a third of likely Republican voters.”
